In recent years, young adults and graduates have been voicing concerns that their wages aren’t keeping up with the market trends, with the cost of living eating up more and more of their earnings, leaving them with less to put towards savings.
To understand if this is the case and how earnings and the cost of living have changed for young adults, this study has analyzed data from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) average earnings and Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) expenditure data. This study aims to find out how earnings for new graduates have changed, and whether they are keeping pace with living costs.
The average annual graduate salary, without adjusting for inflation, has changed from $6,084 in 1960 to an estimated $61,088 in 2023. [See all sources here] But adjusting for inflation, using the BLS CPI Inflation Calculator, this actually means 1960’s graduates were earning the equivalent of $62,121 in 2023 money. [10] Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI Inflation Calculator https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
Adjusted for inflation, 1969 saw the highest average graduate salary of $79,868 ($9,504 without inflation), while 1994’s graduates had the lowest average annual graduate salary of $57,642 ($28,169 without inflation).
| Graduating year | Average graduate salary | Adjusted salary (Jan 2023) |
|---|---|---|
| 1960 | $6,084 | $62,121 |
| 1961 | $6,302 | $63,267 |
| 1962 | $6,585 | $65,668 |
| 1963 | $6,874 | $67,648 |
| 1964 | $7,045 | $68,209 |
| 1965 | $7,257 | $69,586 |
| 1966 | $7,768 | $73,080 |
| 1967 | $8,312 | $75,584 |
| 1968 | $8,870 | $77,819 |
| 1969 | $9,504 | $79,868 |
| 1970 | $9,951 | $78,758 |
| 1971 | $9,886 | $74,311 |
| 1972 | $10,000 | $72,791 |
| 1973 | $10,543 | $74,041 |
| 1974 | $11,111 | $71,332 |
| 1975 | $12,095 | $69,452 |
| 1976 | $12,730 | $68,497 |
| 1977 | $13,772 | $70,430 |
| 1978 | $15,051 | $72,045 |
| 1979 | $16,692 | $73,115 |
| 1980 | $18,553 | $71,343 |
| 1981 | $20,906 | $71,890 |
| 1982 | $22,449 | $71,220 |
| 1983 | $22,161 | $67,790 |
| 1984 | $23,278 | $68,342 |
| 1985 | $24,289 | $68,877 |
| 1986 | $24,752 | $67,564 |
| 1987 | $24,169 | $65,024 |
| 1988 | $25,886 | $66,934 |
| 1989 | $26,297 | $64,965 |
| 1990 | $27,526 | $64,639 |
| 1991 | $28,030 | $62,301 |
| 1992 | $28,111 | $60,898 |
| 1993 | $28,088 | $58,928 |
| 1994 | $28,169 | $57,642 |
| 1995 | $29,276 | $58,273 |
| 1996 | $30,728 | $59,539 |
| 1997 | $32,047 | $60,261 |
| 1998 | $34,471 | $63,816 |
| 1999 | $35,595 | $64,814 |
| 2000 | $39,824 | $70,581 |
| 2001 | $42,557 | $72,711 |
| 2002 | $40,162 | $67,845 |
| 2003 | $39,296 | $64,701 |
| 2004 | $39,960 | $64,551 |
| 2005 | $42,081 | $66,017 |
| 2006 | $43,321 | $65,357 |
| 2007 | $45,725 | $67,581 |
| 2008 | $49,224 | $69,767 |
| 2009 | $48,633 | $68,908 |
| 2010 | $48,288 | $66,669 |
| 2011 | $51,171 | $69,515 |
| 2012 | $44,259 | $58,416 |
| 2013 | $45,327 | $58,887 |
| 2014 | $48,127 | $61,553 |
| 2015 | $50,219 | $64,286 |
| 2016 | $50,359 | $63,592 |
| 2017 | $50,516 | $62,234 |
| 2018 | $50,944 | $61,488 |
| 2019 | $53,889 | $64,049 |
| 2020 | $55,260 | $64,085 |
| 2021 | $55,911 | $63,945 |
| 2022 | $60,934 | $64,840 |
| 2023 | $61,088 | $61,088 |
The study also looks to review this salary data alongside the historical cost of living in the country. This data from the BLS is only available from 1984 onwards for people aged under 25 (the typical age bracket of graduates). [11] The Hamilton Project - Age Distribution of Undergraduate Students, by Type of Institution https://www.hamiltonproject.org/charts/age_distribution_of_undergraduate_students_by_type_of_institution [12] Louisiana State University - Average Age of Graduates by Degree Level https://www.lsu.edu/bgtplan/studentdatareport/grading-class-profile/avg-age-degree-level/gradprof_20152016_12.pdf
The data reveals that since 1984 the average graduate salary has fallen by 10.6% when adjusted for inflation. Graduates in this year earned $23,278, or $68,342 in 2023 money, a difference of $7,254 from 2023 graduate salary projections.
From 1960 to 2010, analysis of NACE data shows that graduate earnings increased nominally by an average of 4.3% per year, however, from 2010 to 2023, median graduate earnings have risen by an average of 1.8% each year.
Accounting for inflation relative to 2023, from 1960 to 2010, salaries increased by an average of 0.26% annually, but from 2010 to 2023, these adjusted earnings were found to have declined by an average of -0.32% annually. Therefore, the data reflects that graduate earnings aren’t as powerful as they once were.
Taking the NACE data for various bachelor’s degrees and their respective average annual graduate salaries, the study can also show how this salary change over time differs for individual degrees. Click the individual degree in the interactive table below to view the data.
At the time of this report’s creation, the NACE data for 2022 and 2023 reflects salary projections based on business’ survey responses, not exact reported salaries.
While no specific dataset exists on expenditure for graduates over time, this analysis utilizes BLS consumer expenditure data for adults aged under 25, [13] Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Expenditure Surveys - Expenditure Tables 1984-2011 https://www.bls.gov/cex/csxstnd.htm [14] Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Expenditure Surveys - Expenditure Tables 2011 onwards https://www.bls.gov/cex/tables.htm as well as additional student loan debt figures, [15] Education Data Initiative - Average Student Loan Debt by Year https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-debt-by-year [16] Bankrate - ‘Student loan debt statistics’ https://www.bankrate.com/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt-statistics/ to better review an example financial environment graduates may have found themselves entering.
A graduate’s finances will differ based on factors such as parental support, living status, and which city/state they live in, however, this analysis seeks to show what an average scenario could have looked like over time.
Adjusted for inflation, the below graph shows the annual expenditure the average adult aged under 25 pays according to the BLS’ Consumer Expenditure Survey. [13] Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Expenditure Surveys - Expenditure Tables 1984-2011 https://www.bls.gov/cex/csxstnd.htm [14] Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Expenditure Surveys - Expenditure Tables 2011 onwards https://www.bls.gov/cex/tables.htm This data factors in food, housing, apparel, entertainment, and healthcare spending from the BLS and separate data on student debt. [15] Education Data Initiative - Average Student Loan Debt by Year https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-debt-by-year [16] Bankrate - ‘Student loan debt statistics’ https://www.bankrate.com/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt-statistics/
| Year | Annual expenditure for adults aged under 25 with student debt |
|---|---|
| 1984 | $12,637 |
| 1985 | $12,417 |
| 1986 | $12,767 |
| 1987 | $12,562 |
| 1988 | $13,815 |
| 1989 | $13,233 |
| 1990 | $12,720 |
| 1991 | $12,387 |
| 1992 | $12,031 |
| 1993 | $11,812 |
| 1994 | $11,631 |
| 1995 | $12,336 |
| 1996 | $12,292 |
| 1997 | $12,498 |
| 1998 | $12,739 |
| 1999 | $13,518 |
| 2000 | $13,001 |
| 2001 | $13,426 |
| 2002 | $13,415 |
| 2003 | $12,612 |
| 2004 | $13,058 |
| 2005 | $12,898 |
| 2006 | $13,808 |
| 2007 | $14,043 |
| 2008 | $13,578 |
| 2009 | $13,138 |
| 2010 | $13,213 |
| 2011 | $13,260 |
| 2012 | $14,090 |
| 2013 | $13,594 |
| 2014 | $13,318 |
| 2015 | $14,043 |
| 2016 | $13,820 |
| 2017 | $14,571 |
| 2018 | $14,033 |
| 2019 | $15,668 |
| 2020 | $14,268 |
| 2021 | $12,459 |
| 2022 | $12,740 |
Overall, the data shows that, adjusted for inflation, average expenditure for those aged under 25 has increased by 0.8%, primarily due to a drop in expenditure in 2021. Comparing 1984 expenditure to 2020 however, reveals a much higher 12.9% increase. Living costs have increased either way the data is reviewed.
With inflation and the rising cost of living, the 2022 and 2023 official figures from the BLS are likely to show a sharp increase in expenditure when released. For the moment, 2021 figures alongside the CPI Inflation Calculator have proposed what the 2022 environment may look like for those aged under 25.
| Graduating year | Housing | Food | Clothing | Entertainment | Health | Student debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1984 | $5,939 | $3,302 | $1,483 | $1,034 | $587 | $292 |
| 1985 | $5,712 | $3,284 | $1,400 | $1,091 | $655 | $274 |
| 1986 | $6,402 | $3,235 | $1,256 | $1,036 | $547 | $290 |
| 1987 | $6,225 | $3,185 | $1,282 | $1,077 | $489 | $305 |
| 1988 | $6,584 | $3,406 | $1,446 | $1,333 | $726 | $320 |
| 1989 | $6,360 | $3,329 | $1,512 | $1,230 | $463 | $340 |
| 1990 | $6,068 | $3,458 | $1,295 | $1,043 | $505 | $350 |
| 1991 | $5,919 | $3,062 | $1,455 | $1,098 | $436 | $417 |
| 1992 | $5,722 | $2,921 | $1,412 | $1,034 | $464 | $479 |
| 1993 | $5,748 | $2,855 | $1,300 | $988 | $379 | $543 |
| 1994 | $5,601 | $2,796 | $1,108 | $1,019 | $506 | $601 |
| 1995 | $6,072 | $2,765 | $1,241 | $1,113 | $479 | $666 |
| 1996 | $5,880 | $3,018 | $1,285 | $1,029 | $407 | $673 |
| 1997 | $6,042 | $2,926 | $1,286 | $1,084 | $438 | $722 |
| 1998 | $6,249 | $3,124 | $1,152 | $990 | $452 | $773 |
| 1999 | $6,519 | $3,320 | $1,180 | $1,137 | $545 | $817 |
| 2000 | $6,444 | $2,913 | $1,287 | $989 | $457 | $912 |
| 2001 | $6,698 | $3,289 | $1,057 | $1,017 | $468 | $896 |
| 2002 | $6,469 | $3,150 | $1,187 | $1,054 | $557 | $998 |
| 2003 | $6,367 | $3,052 | $1,002 | $853 | $490 | $847 |
| 2004 | $6,342 | $3,080 | $1,137 | $967 | $542 | $990 |
| 2005 | $6,406 | $2,818 | $1,130 | $998 | $504 | $1,041 |
| 2006 | $6,897 | $2,889 | $1,079 | $994 | $520 | $1,429 |
| 2007 | $6,886 | $2,971 | $1,060 | $1,039 | $574 | $1,513 |
| 2008 | $6,820 | $3,040 | $924 | $1,099 | $466 | $1,228 |
| 2009 | $6,743 | $2,894 | $967 | $854 | $468 | $1,212 |
| 2010 | $6,595 | $2,812 | $1,076 | $843 | $535 | $1,353 |
| 2011 | $6,651 | $2,817 | $937 | $870 | $544 | $1,441 |
| 2012 | $7,231 | $2,912 | $822 | $830 | $676 | $1,620 |
| 2013 | $6,631 | $3,001 | $967 | $794 | $602 | $1,599 |
| 2014 | $6,858 | $2,647 | $769 | $789 | $660 | $1,594 |
| 2015 | $7,121 | $3,074 | $799 | $851 | $615 | $1,583 |
| 2016 | $7,058 | $2,820 | $753 | $901 | $720 | $1,569 |
| 2017 | $7,180 | $3,036 | $839 | $949 | $987 | $1,580 |
| 2018 | $7,117 | $2,962 | $704 | $879 | $752 | $1,620 |
| 2019 | $7,813 | $3,578 | $863 | $852 | $926 | $1,635 |
| 2020 | $8,071 | $2,477 | $637 | $693 | $739 | $1,651 |
| 2021 | $6,911 | $2,532 | $455 | $519 | $418 | $1,624 |
| 2022 | $6,911 | $2,532 | $455 | $519 | $418 | $1,904 |
Since 1984 to 2022, expenditure data revealed that housing costs for adults aged under 25 have increased by 35.77%, rising from $5,939 per person in 1984 to $6,911 in 2022. Assuming a 20 year repayment term, a student with debt in 1984 would have had annual payments of $292, whereas 2022 graduates will pay closer to $1,904, unless the White House’s student loan forgiveness plan goes into effect.
As stated earlier in this study, average annual graduate earnings have fallen by 10.6%, but living costs have not decreased meaning there is a salary and spending mismatch.
The chart below compares average graduate salaries to the average cost of living for adults aged under 25 over time.
| Graduating year | Personal annual expenditure | Average graduate salary (adjusted for inflation) |
|---|---|---|
| 1984 | $12,637 | $68,342 |
| 1985 | $12,417 | $68,877 |
| 1986 | $12,767 | $67,564 |
| 1987 | $12,562 | $65,024 |
| 1988 | $13,815 | $66,934 |
| 1989 | $13,233 | $64,965 |
| 1990 | $12,720 | $64,639 |
| 1991 | $12,387 | $62,301 |
| 1992 | $12,031 | $60,898 |
| 1993 | $11,812 | $58,928 |
| 1994 | $11,631 | $57,642 |
| 1995 | $12,336 | $58,273 |
| 1996 | $12,292 | $59,539 |
| 1997 | $12,498 | $60,261 |
| 1998 | $12,739 | $63,816 |
| 1999 | $13,518 | $64,814 |
| 2000 | $13,001 | $70,581 |
| 2001 | $13,426 | $72,711 |
| 2002 | $13,415 | $67,845 |
| 2003 | $12,612 | $64,701 |
| 2004 | $13,058 | $64,551 |
| 2005 | $12,898 | $66,017 |
| 2006 | $13,808 | $65,357 |
| 2007 | $14,043 | $67,581 |
| 2008 | $13,578 | $69,767 |
| 2009 | $13,138 | $68,908 |
| 2010 | $13,213 | $66,669 |
| 2011 | $13,260 | $69,515 |
| 2012 | $14,090 | $58,416 |
| 2013 | $13,594 | $58,887 |
| 2014 | $13,318 | $61,553 |
| 2015 | $14,043 | $64,286 |
| 2016 | $13,820 | $63,592 |
| 2017 | $14,571 | $62,234 |
| 2018 | $14,033 | $61,488 |
| 2019 | $15,668 | $64,049 |
| 2020 | $14,268 | $64,085 |
| 2021 | $12,459 | $63,945 |
| 2022 | $12,740 | $64,840 |
As the charts show, expenditure for those of the typical full-time graduate age (under 25) has remained very similar from $12,637 in 1984 to $12,740 in 2022, while the class of 2020 faced a pandemic job market and $14,268 in expenditure in comparison.
This does assume the individual graduate will be sharing their rent with others as the BLS dataset indicates there is, on average, always more than one adult in a household at this age. The gap between wage and expenditure however would be far greater if rent and bills are not being shared.
In this same time period, the median graduate salary has decreased in value by $3,502. When adjusting NACE’s figures, it was revealed that the median graduate salary has fallen from $68,342 in 1984 ($23,278 unadjusted) to $64,840 in 2022.
Looking at the numbers, the data indicates that graduates may have more than you think, but are still financially worse off than they were in the 1980s.
Before-tax, the average graduate in 1984 had the equivalent of $55,706 remaining of their median earnings of $68,342. However, by 2020, graduates had remaining earnings of $49,817 from their median earnings of $64,085. In 2022 this gap was slightly better with $52,100 remaining from their median (projected) earnings of $64,840.
The most notable explanation as to why new graduates have slightly less remaining every year is the fall in median pay after inflation, which has fallen by $3,502 (5.12%) since 1984, while housing costs have increased by 35.77%, rising from $5,939 per person in 1984 to $6,911 in 2022.
Looking at the percentage of salary remaining after accounting for expenditure reveals that 1985 graduates had the highest spending power where they had 81.97% of their pre-tax salaries available after typical living expenses.
The table below shows the top 10 years since 1984 to be a graduate based on the percentage of salary spent on typical expenditure for an adult aged under 25.
| Graduating year | Average graduate salary (adjusted to 2023) | Pre-tax salary remaining after living costs | % of salary remaining after living costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | $68,877 | $56,461 | 81.97% |
| 2000 | $70,581 | $57,580 | 81.58% |
| 2001 | $72,711 | $59,286 | 81.54% |
| 1984 | $68,342 | $55,706 | 81.51% |
| 1986 | $67,564 | $54,797 | 81.10% |
| 2009 | $68,908 | $55,770 | 80.93% |
| 2011 | $69,515 | $56,255 | 80.93% |
| 1987 | $65,024 | $52,462 | 80.68% |
| 2008 | $69,767 | $56,189 | 80.54% |
| 2003 | $64,701 | $52,089 | 80.51% |
To analyze how graduate annual earnings have changed over time, alongside the cost of living, the study analyzed recent and historical data on graduate salaries from various non-public facing (available to members) reports from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE). [See all sources here] 2022 and 2023 average graduate salary was not available at the time of the report creation, therefore, the median average salaries of Computer Sciences, Engineering, Math & Sciences, Social Sciences, Business, Agriculture & Natural Resources, Communications, and Humanities graduates were analyzed to create an overall average salary for graduates of that academic year. Data for all years was adjusted to January 2023 using the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI Inflation Calculator. [10] Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI Inflation Calculator https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
When analyzing the cost of living and how it reflects graduate earnings the study utilizes Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) expenditures data for adults aged under 25 since 1984; looking at expenditure figures across housing, food, apparel, entertainment, healthcare, and total average expenditures. This data is at a household level, therefore to generate figures relevant to an individual, the expenditures were divided by the number of adults in each household (aged under 25) which was different each year, ranging from 1.8 to 2.1 adults. This seeks to reflect one person’s expenditure relative to one graduate.
The BLS expenditure data was used in conjunction with findings showing that adults aged 24 and under represent the largest proportion of undergraduates [11] The Hamilton Project - Age Distribution of Undergraduate Students, by Type of Institution https://www.hamiltonproject.org/charts/age_distribution_of_undergraduate_students_by_type_of_institution and other university reports confirm the most common age for college baccalaureate graduates is 23. [12] Louisiana State University - Average Age of Graduates by Degree Level https://www.lsu.edu/bgtplan/studentdatareport/grading-class-profile/avg-age-degree-level/gradprof_20152016_12.pdf
To further review expenditure data, the study also used student debt data, based on an assumption of a 20-year repayment plan, the typical time it takes a graduate to pay off debt. [17] Education Data Initiative - Average Time to Repay Student Loans https://educationdata.org/average-time-to-repay-student-loans This data was also adjusted using the CPI Inflation Calculator to match the BLS expenditure data.
Throughout the study, earnings and expenditures were analyzed both with and without inflation to show how they have changed over time and as an equivalent to the current jobs and financial markets.
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